In January, 2016, the Department of State’s Chief of Visa Control and Reporting Charles Oppenheim responded to questions regarding trends and projections for employment based visa number availability for EB-2s and EB-3s for India and China.
In brief, here is what he said:
India: EB-2s from India have advanced significantly in the last few months arising out of lower than anticipated demand. DOS is taking steps to ensure that cases can be concluded and visas issued within the fiscal year by aggressively moving visa numbers in these categories. It is unclear if lower demand arose from fewer India EB-3 to EB-2 conversions than previously were expected, or whether prior months’ visa movement met the India EB-2 visa demand, or whether USCIS reduced its EB-2 backlog from India so that demand appears to be lower.
China: China EB-2s are expected to trail EB-3s, although DOS expects the China EB-2 demand will diminish from high usage levels seen in October, 2015. EB-2 demand has decreased ever since. China EB-3 demand has remained low and EB-3 visa numbers are expected to move forward because first quarter FY 2016 visa usage targets were not reached. Continued EB-3 movement could result in EB-2 to EB-3 conversions. China EB-2 and EB-3 may re-balance as a result. Both China EB-2 and EB-3 are expected to move forward in March, 2016.